Commentary

Times of Uncertainty

April 4, 2025 | Suzanne Armstrong Ph. D. Director of Policy & Research for the CFFO

Times of Uncertainty

By Suzanne Armstrong

It is an unfortunate reality that the various “tit for tat” moves in international trade can pit Canadian agricultural sectors and farming regions against one another. Canada’s farming sector produces high quality goods for Canadian consumers and is one of few nations genuinely capable of producing significant food exports. This means trade is vital to the success of many farming businesses.

Farmers want to market their products, at home and abroad, and need to know they can tolerate risks. With the market uncertainty and trade volatility we are currently facing, support programs need to be in place. They need to be designed to ensure businesses can weather storms, while also still respond to important market signals. It is good to see both provincial and federal leaders stepping up to strengthen risk management for agriculture.

It is clear, however, that despite our strong connections as a nation coast to coast, trade has been far easier north-south compared to east-west. Why, for example, are US farmers so dependent on potash from Canada (primarily Saskatchewan) while eastern Canadian farmers are primarily dependent on international sources? So much of our greenhouse production, be it vegetables or flowers, heads south to the U.S., while significant fresh produce eaten by Canadians comes from California. We have lost important Canadian processing capacity for both meat and vegetables.

Canadians are keen to support Canadian businesses and Canadian products. There is an opportunity here to do more than simply “switch brands.” Do Ontario consumers know what we are good at producing right here? Will consumers make a point of enjoying a lot more of what Ontario farmers and processors have to offer?

The current uncertainty brings with it significant risks. This is also a time to appreciate the market opportunities that are still in place, or that may present themselves in this time of change.